市三輪候狀態統計（只提供英文版）

dragon00

市三輪候狀態統計（只提供英文版）

因為上次應承咗TVB要用英文開po，講過要算數，所以今次統計同分析只會用英文，如有需要請搵TVB翻譯

Disclaimer: The following analysis is my personal view and is for reference only. Please judge whether you can trust it and act at your own risk. I am not responsible for any circumstances resulted if you use my analysis.

The largest application number having the first allocation is stuck at 13220 in the past two months. Although one people of 13220 get his first allocation last week after the one two months ago, there is no more people having his/her application status turned to S3 or S4 for a week including smaller application numbers, while other family sizes choosing Urban have some updates.

On the other hand, more and more people with smaller application numbers are with their application status returning from SR (Step Rejected) to S2. It seems like that the next round of allocation for smaller application numbers is coming soon, while people from 13220 have to wait for a while after this round.

The next round of active allocation is likely to appear when Lai Tsui Court is being allocated to ordinary people applying for public rental housing.

From the data during allocation of Hoi Ying Estate last year, it was shown that around 15% to 20% of applications of 3 people, Urban would come to this forum and share their allocated estate. Since usually there would only be about 70% to 75% of flats of a new estate allocated to ordinary people applying for public rental housing, within the 292 flats of one bedroom in Lai Tsui Court (part for public rental housing), only around 212 would be released. So, it is expected that about 37 people allocated to Lai Tsui Court would come to this forum and share their allocation.

There may be bad guys who are queuing for New Territories now but planning to come and get a flat at Lai Tsui Court when this estate is being allocated to applicants. However, they may not be successful since it is safer for them to change their application to Urban when it is approved that Lai Tsui Court is being allocated, which would be about a week since the first S3 to Lai Tsui Court, while the expected period of S3 to Lai Tsui Court is 11 days. Even though they may apply to change their choice of district online, it will still take at least 3 days for successful application. So, when these people arrive Urban, most flats at Lai Tsui Court will already be allocated and only a very small portion of them may be successful

Therefore we may exclude those people from our analysis. However, the first 37 people on the list of application data are those waiting for second or third allocation. So my conclusion on allocating applicants with flats at Lai Tsui Court is that, only those with application number of 13220 or smaller have a high chance to be allocated to Lai Tsui Court, other applicants please wait for Shek Kip Mei Estate (Phase 6).

With a similar way of analysis, about 35 people would come to this forum and share their allocation to Shek Kip Mei Estate (Phase 6), and this will make people with application number between 13221 to 13239 have a high chance to be allocated to this estate.

People from 13240 have to wait for a longer time. It is forecast that people of application number between 13240 to 13260 have a relatively higher chance to get their first allocation in 2019, given that there will only be Pak Tin Estate (Phases 7 and 8), as new estate, being allocated to applicants, while most allocated would be to older estates.

It is not optimistic for the application states of 3 people, Urban in this year.

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edwinvan1985

It’s a really good strategy you’re posting in English!
I think a lot of members aren’t reading and understand,

cheungshing01

我全部英文字母都睇得明。

lowina林

雖然都看得明，但都系中文好d哈哈?

dragon00

It’s a really good strategy you’re posting in English!
I think a lot of members aren’t reading a...
edwinvan1985 發表於 2019-06-13 17:43:21 原文

This can limit the size of audience.

edwinvan1985

This can limit the size of audience.
dragon00 發表於 2019-06-13 17:53:11 原文

However, Are you writing in English also in the future post?

justwait

Thx foring sharing
U mean that Shek Kip Mei Estate (Phase 6) will allocate after the Lai Tsui Court soon?

sapig

I read already. Thanks for sharing!

zxc

good

dragon00

However, Are you writing in English also in the future post?
edwinvan1985 發表於 2019-06-13 17:57:58 原文

I will consider to continue to use English as the major medium in my future post about analysis, but probably not for data of application status.